Labour on course for historic election victory

YouGov’s final call MRP of the 2024 election points to a Labour landslide.

The model’s midpoint seat projections show Labour on 431, Conservatives on 102, Liberal Democrats on 72, the SNP on 18, Greens on 2, Reform UK on 3, and Plaid Cymru on 3.

The seat ranges for the parties are Labour 391-466, Conservatives 78-129, Liberal Democrats 57-87, the SNP 8-34, Greens 1-4, Reform UK 0-14 and Plaid Cymru 1-4. YouGov, however, has categorised 89 seats as ‘tossups’, meaning there are five points or fewer between first and second place, so small changes in voter behaviour could see notable changes in results.

The implied national vote shares are Labour 39%, Conservative 22%, Reform UK 15%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Greens 7%, the SNP 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%.

Even in a ‘best case scenario’ the result for the Conservatives is significantly worse than the party’s previous worst election result in 1906, when it won 156 seats.

Several prominent politicians are set to lose their seats including:

  • Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor (Godalming and Ash)
  • Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House (Portsmouth North)
  • Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary (Welwyn Hatfield)
  • Alex Chalk, Justice Secretary (Cheltenham)
  • Mark Harper, Transport Secretary (Forest of Dean)
  • Gillian Keegan, Education Secretary (Chichester)
  • Michelle Donelan, Science Secretary (Melksham and Devizes)
  • Lucy Frazer, Culture Secretary (Ely and East Cambridgeshire)
  • David T C Davies, Wales Secretary (Monmouthshire)
  • Steve Baker, Northern Ireland Minister (Wycombe)
  • Johnny Mercer, Minister of State for Veterans’ Affairs (Plymouth Moor View)
  • Greg Hands, Minister for London and Minister of State for Trade Policy (Chelsea & Fulham)
  • Michael Tomlinson, Minister of State for Countering Illegal (Mid Dorset and North Poole)
  • Esther McVey, Minister of State without Portfolio (Tatton)

For GB data visit

The Conservatives are facing wipeout in the North West, taking no seats, with Labour on course to win in 69 of the region’s constituencies.

Three races are classified as tossups with the Tories running Labour close across all of them – Chester South and Eddisbury, Fylde, and Ribble Valley.

The Liberal Democrats are on course to win three seats. Reform UK is in second place in 32 constituencies although it does not win more than a third of the vote in any.

North West seats by party

  • Labour: 69
  • Liberal Democrat: 3

Image: Keir Starmer, official portrait Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) Houses of Parliament: Paul Buffington Collage: Birkenhead News

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